Abstract

Passive optical networks (PONs) are being widely considered as a means to implement fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) and deliver broadband access to business and home users. However, technical and consequently regulatory and economic complexities arise in light of their deployment. In this paper, an evaluation of the business prospects of time division multiplexed (TDM) and wavelength division multiplexed (WDM) PON architectures for FTTH deployments under different rollout conditions is performed, based on the ECOSYS techno-economic methodology and tool. The importance of various cost components (fiber installation, optoelectronic components, etc.) is discussed. Using sensitivity analysis, the effect of various parameters such as duct availability, cost of civil works, etc. on the prospects of the investment are investigated. These results reveal several important techno-economic aspects that should be considered by telecom operators, regulators, and policy makers towards a successful FTTH deployment strategy.

© 2010 Optical Society of America

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2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

N. J. Frigo, P. P. Iannone, K. C. Reichmann, “A view of fiber to the home economics,” IEEE Commun. Mag., vol. 42, no. 8, pp. S16–S23, Aug. 2004.
[CrossRef]

B. T. Olsen, K. Stordahl, “Models for forecasting cost evolution of components and technologies,” Telektronikk, vol. 4, pp. 138–148, Apr. 2004.

2003

K. W. Marcus, Z. Francis, “The economics of fiber to the home revisited,” Bell Labs Tech. J., vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 181–206, July 2003.
[CrossRef]

E. J. Tyler, P. Kourtessis, M. Webster, E. Rochart, T. Quinlan, S. E. M. Dudley, S. D. Walker, R. V. Penty, I. H. White, “Toward terabit-per-second capacities over multimode fiber links using SCM/WDM techniques,” J. Lightwave Technol., vol. 21, no. 12, pp. 3237–3243, Dec. 2003.
[CrossRef]

T. Monath, N. K. Elnegaard, P. Cadro, D. Katsianis, D. Varoutas, “Economics of fixed broadband access network strategies,” IEEE Commun. Mag., vol. 41, no. 9, pp. 132–139, Sept. 2003.
[CrossRef]

2002

F. J. Velez, “Mobile broadband services: classification, characterization, and deployment scenarios,” IEEE Commun. Mag., vol. 40, pp. 142–150, Apr. 2002.
[CrossRef]

K. B. Song, S. T. Chung, G. Ginis, J. M. Cioffi, “Dynamic spectrum management for next-generation DSL systems,” IEEE Commun. Mag., vol. 40, no. 10, pp. 101–109, Oct. 2002.
[CrossRef]

2001

D. Katsianis, I. Welling, M. Ylonen, D. Varoutas, T. Sphicopoulos, N. Elnegaard, B. Olsen, L. Budry, “The financial perspective of the mobile networks in Europe,” IEEE Pers. Commun., vol. 8, no. 6, pp. 58–64, Dec. 2001.
[CrossRef]

Ansari, N.

J. Zhang, N. Ansari, Y. Luo, “Next generation PONs: a performance investigation of candidate architectures for next-generation access stage I,” IEEE Commun. Mag., vol. 47, no. 8, pp. 49–57, Aug. 2009.
[CrossRef]

Banerjee, A.

Bickham, S.

Budry, L.

D. Katsianis, I. Welling, M. Ylonen, D. Varoutas, T. Sphicopoulos, N. Elnegaard, B. Olsen, L. Budry, “The financial perspective of the mobile networks in Europe,” IEEE Pers. Commun., vol. 8, no. 6, pp. 58–64, Dec. 2001.
[CrossRef]

Cadro, P.

T. Monath, N. K. Elnegaard, P. Cadro, D. Katsianis, D. Varoutas, “Economics of fixed broadband access network strategies,” IEEE Commun. Mag., vol. 41, no. 9, pp. 132–139, Sept. 2003.
[CrossRef]

Casier, K.

K. Casier, B. Lannoo, J. Van Ooteghem, S. Verbrugge, D. Colle, M. Pickavet, P. Demeester, “Game-theoretic optimization of a fiber-to-the-home municipality network rollout,” J. Opt. Commun. Netw., vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 30–42, June 2009.
[CrossRef]

S. Verbrugge, R. Meersman, K. Casier, D. Colle, J. Vanhaverbeke, J. Van Ooteghem, P. Demeester, “Issues in techno-economic evaluation of VDSL/FTTH access networks roll-out (invited paper),” in Proc. NOC, 2007, pp. 208–215.

K. Casier, S. Verbrugge, R. Meersman, D. Colle, M. Pickavet, P. Demeester, “Techno-economic evaluations of FTTH roll-out scenarios (invited paper),” in Proc. NOC, 2008, pp. 113–120.

Cheng, N.

Choi, K.-M.

Chung, S. T.

K. B. Song, S. T. Chung, G. Ginis, J. M. Cioffi, “Dynamic spectrum management for next-generation DSL systems,” IEEE Commun. Mag., vol. 40, no. 10, pp. 101–109, Oct. 2002.
[CrossRef]

Chung, Y. C.

Cioffi, J. M.

K. B. Song, S. T. Chung, G. Ginis, J. M. Cioffi, “Dynamic spectrum management for next-generation DSL systems,” IEEE Commun. Mag., vol. 40, no. 10, pp. 101–109, Oct. 2002.
[CrossRef]

Clarke, F.

Colle, D.

K. Casier, B. Lannoo, J. Van Ooteghem, S. Verbrugge, D. Colle, M. Pickavet, P. Demeester, “Game-theoretic optimization of a fiber-to-the-home municipality network rollout,” J. Opt. Commun. Netw., vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 30–42, June 2009.
[CrossRef]

S. Verbrugge, R. Meersman, K. Casier, D. Colle, J. Vanhaverbeke, J. Van Ooteghem, P. Demeester, “Issues in techno-economic evaluation of VDSL/FTTH access networks roll-out (invited paper),” in Proc. NOC, 2007, pp. 208–215.

K. Casier, S. Verbrugge, R. Meersman, D. Colle, M. Pickavet, P. Demeester, “Techno-economic evaluations of FTTH roll-out scenarios (invited paper),” in Proc. NOC, 2008, pp. 113–120.

Demeester, P.

K. Casier, B. Lannoo, J. Van Ooteghem, S. Verbrugge, D. Colle, M. Pickavet, P. Demeester, “Game-theoretic optimization of a fiber-to-the-home municipality network rollout,” J. Opt. Commun. Netw., vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 30–42, June 2009.
[CrossRef]

S. Verbrugge, R. Meersman, K. Casier, D. Colle, J. Vanhaverbeke, J. Van Ooteghem, P. Demeester, “Issues in techno-economic evaluation of VDSL/FTTH access networks roll-out (invited paper),” in Proc. NOC, 2007, pp. 208–215.

K. Casier, S. Verbrugge, R. Meersman, D. Colle, M. Pickavet, P. Demeester, “Techno-economic evaluations of FTTH roll-out scenarios (invited paper),” in Proc. NOC, 2008, pp. 113–120.

Dudley, S. E. M.

Elnegaard, N.

D. Katsianis, I. Welling, M. Ylonen, D. Varoutas, T. Sphicopoulos, N. Elnegaard, B. Olsen, L. Budry, “The financial perspective of the mobile networks in Europe,” IEEE Pers. Commun., vol. 8, no. 6, pp. 58–64, Dec. 2001.
[CrossRef]

K. Stordahl, K. O. Kalhagen, B. T. Olsen, J. Lydersen, B. Olufsen, N. Elnegaard, “Traffic forecast models for the transport network,” in Proc. Networks, 2002, p. 6.

Elnegaard, N. K.

T. Monath, N. K. Elnegaard, P. Cadro, D. Katsianis, D. Varoutas, “Economics of fixed broadband access network strategies,” IEEE Commun. Mag., vol. 41, no. 9, pp. 132–139, Sept. 2003.
[CrossRef]

Francis, Z.

K. W. Marcus, Z. Francis, “The economics of fiber to the home revisited,” Bell Labs Tech. J., vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 181–206, July 2003.
[CrossRef]

Frigo, N. J.

N. J. Frigo, P. P. Iannone, K. C. Reichmann, “A view of fiber to the home economics,” IEEE Commun. Mag., vol. 42, no. 8, pp. S16–S23, Aug. 2004.
[CrossRef]

Ginis, G.

K. B. Song, S. T. Chung, G. Ginis, J. M. Cioffi, “Dynamic spectrum management for next-generation DSL systems,” IEEE Commun. Mag., vol. 40, no. 10, pp. 101–109, Oct. 2002.
[CrossRef]

Gutierrez, D.

He, H.

Y. Su, P. Hu, W. Hu, J. Zhang, L. Leng, H. He, X. Tian, Y. Jin, “A packet-switched waveband-selective PON enabling optical Internetworking among ONUs,” in 31st European Conf. on Optical Communications, 2005, vol. 3, pp. 691–692.

Hu, P.

Y. Su, P. Hu, W. Hu, J. Zhang, L. Leng, H. He, X. Tian, Y. Jin, “A packet-switched waveband-selective PON enabling optical Internetworking among ONUs,” in 31st European Conf. on Optical Communications, 2005, vol. 3, pp. 691–692.

Hu, W.

Y. Su, P. Hu, W. Hu, J. Zhang, L. Leng, H. He, X. Tian, Y. Jin, “A packet-switched waveband-selective PON enabling optical Internetworking among ONUs,” in 31st European Conf. on Optical Communications, 2005, vol. 3, pp. 691–692.

Iannone, P. P.

N. J. Frigo, P. P. Iannone, K. C. Reichmann, “A view of fiber to the home economics,” IEEE Commun. Mag., vol. 42, no. 8, pp. S16–S23, Aug. 2004.
[CrossRef]

Igel, J. R.

Janjua, K. A.

K. A. Janjua, S. A. Khan, “A comparative economic analysis of different FTTH architectures,” in Proc. WiCom, 2007, pp. 4979–4982.

Jeong, K.-T.

Jin, Y.

Y. Su, P. Hu, W. Hu, J. Zhang, L. Leng, H. He, X. Tian, Y. Jin, “A packet-switched waveband-selective PON enabling optical Internetworking among ONUs,” in 31st European Conf. on Optical Communications, 2005, vol. 3, pp. 691–692.

Jun, S. B.

Kalhagen, K. O.

K. Stordahl, K. O. Kalhagen, B. T. Olsen, J. Lydersen, B. Olufsen, N. Elnegaard, “Traffic forecast models for the transport network,” in Proc. Networks, 2002, p. 6.

Kamalakis, Th.

D. Varoutas, Th. Kamalakis, D. Katsianis, Th. Sphicopoulos, Th. Monath, “Techno-economic evaluation of optical access and metropolitan area networks: the influence of the status of maturity of the photonics component industry,” in Proc. Optical Fiber Communication and the Nat. Fiber Optic Engineers Conf., 2007, pp. 1–3.

Katsianis, D.

T. Rokkas, D. Katsianis, D. Varoutas, “Techno-economic evaluation of FTTC/VDSL and FTTH roll-out scenarios: discounted cash flows and real option valuation,” J. Opt. Commun. Netw., vol. 2, no. 9, pp. 760–772, Sept. 2010.
[CrossRef]

T. Monath, N. K. Elnegaard, P. Cadro, D. Katsianis, D. Varoutas, “Economics of fixed broadband access network strategies,” IEEE Commun. Mag., vol. 41, no. 9, pp. 132–139, Sept. 2003.
[CrossRef]

D. Katsianis, I. Welling, M. Ylonen, D. Varoutas, T. Sphicopoulos, N. Elnegaard, B. Olsen, L. Budry, “The financial perspective of the mobile networks in Europe,” IEEE Pers. Commun., vol. 8, no. 6, pp. 58–64, Dec. 2001.
[CrossRef]

D. Varoutas, Th. Kamalakis, D. Katsianis, Th. Sphicopoulos, Th. Monath, “Techno-economic evaluation of optical access and metropolitan area networks: the influence of the status of maturity of the photonics component industry,” in Proc. Optical Fiber Communication and the Nat. Fiber Optic Engineers Conf., 2007, pp. 1–3.

Kazovsky, L.

Khan, S. A.

K. A. Janjua, S. A. Khan, “A comparative economic analysis of different FTTH architectures,” in Proc. WiCom, 2007, pp. 4979–4982.

Kim, B.

Kim, B. Y.

Kim, J. H.

Kim, K.

Kim, S. Y.

Kourtessis, P.

Kramer, G.

Lam, C. F.

C. F. Lam, Passive Optical Networks: Principles and Practice. Academic Press, 2007.

Lannoo, B.

Lee, C. H.

Lee, C.-H.

Lee, S.-M.

Leng, L.

Y. Su, P. Hu, W. Hu, J. Zhang, L. Leng, H. He, X. Tian, Y. Jin, “A packet-switched waveband-selective PON enabling optical Internetworking among ONUs,” in 31st European Conf. on Optical Communications, 2005, vol. 3, pp. 691–692.

Li, J.

Luo, Y.

J. Zhang, N. Ansari, Y. Luo, “Next generation PONs: a performance investigation of candidate architectures for next-generation access stage I,” IEEE Commun. Mag., vol. 47, no. 8, pp. 49–57, Aug. 2009.
[CrossRef]

Lydersen, J.

K. Stordahl, K. O. Kalhagen, B. T. Olsen, J. Lydersen, B. Olufsen, N. Elnegaard, “Traffic forecast models for the transport network,” in Proc. Networks, 2002, p. 6.

Marcus, K. W.

K. W. Marcus, Z. Francis, “The economics of fiber to the home revisited,” Bell Labs Tech. J., vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 181–206, July 2003.
[CrossRef]

Meersman, R.

K. Casier, S. Verbrugge, R. Meersman, D. Colle, M. Pickavet, P. Demeester, “Techno-economic evaluations of FTTH roll-out scenarios (invited paper),” in Proc. NOC, 2008, pp. 113–120.

S. Verbrugge, R. Meersman, K. Casier, D. Colle, J. Vanhaverbeke, J. Van Ooteghem, P. Demeester, “Issues in techno-economic evaluation of VDSL/FTTH access networks roll-out (invited paper),” in Proc. NOC, 2007, pp. 208–215.

Monath, T.

T. Monath, N. K. Elnegaard, P. Cadro, D. Katsianis, D. Varoutas, “Economics of fixed broadband access network strategies,” IEEE Commun. Mag., vol. 41, no. 9, pp. 132–139, Sept. 2003.
[CrossRef]

Monath, Th.

D. Varoutas, Th. Kamalakis, D. Katsianis, Th. Sphicopoulos, Th. Monath, “Techno-economic evaluation of optical access and metropolitan area networks: the influence of the status of maturity of the photonics component industry,” in Proc. Optical Fiber Communication and the Nat. Fiber Optic Engineers Conf., 2007, pp. 1–3.

Moon, J.-H.

Mukherjee, B.

Mun, S.-G.

Olsen, B.

D. Katsianis, I. Welling, M. Ylonen, D. Varoutas, T. Sphicopoulos, N. Elnegaard, B. Olsen, L. Budry, “The financial perspective of the mobile networks in Europe,” IEEE Pers. Commun., vol. 8, no. 6, pp. 58–64, Dec. 2001.
[CrossRef]

Olsen, B. T.

B. T. Olsen, K. Stordahl, “Models for forecasting cost evolution of components and technologies,” Telektronikk, vol. 4, pp. 138–148, Apr. 2004.

K. Stordahl, K. O. Kalhagen, B. T. Olsen, J. Lydersen, B. Olufsen, N. Elnegaard, “Traffic forecast models for the transport network,” in Proc. Networks, 2002, p. 6.

Olufsen, B.

K. Stordahl, K. O. Kalhagen, B. T. Olsen, J. Lydersen, B. Olufsen, N. Elnegaard, “Traffic forecast models for the transport network,” in Proc. Networks, 2002, p. 6.

Park, Y.

Penty, R. V.

Pickavet, M.

K. Casier, B. Lannoo, J. Van Ooteghem, S. Verbrugge, D. Colle, M. Pickavet, P. Demeester, “Game-theoretic optimization of a fiber-to-the-home municipality network rollout,” J. Opt. Commun. Netw., vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 30–42, June 2009.
[CrossRef]

K. Casier, S. Verbrugge, R. Meersman, D. Colle, M. Pickavet, P. Demeester, “Techno-economic evaluations of FTTH roll-out scenarios (invited paper),” in Proc. NOC, 2008, pp. 113–120.

Quinlan, T.

Reichmann, K. C.

N. J. Frigo, P. P. Iannone, K. C. Reichmann, “A view of fiber to the home economics,” IEEE Commun. Mag., vol. 42, no. 8, pp. S16–S23, Aug. 2004.
[CrossRef]

Rochart, E.

Rokkas, T.

Ruffin, A. B.

Shaw, W.-T.

Shen, G.

Shinohara, H.

Son, E. S.

Song, H.

Song, K. B.

K. B. Song, S. T. Chung, G. Ginis, J. M. Cioffi, “Dynamic spectrum management for next-generation DSL systems,” IEEE Commun. Mag., vol. 40, no. 10, pp. 101–109, Oct. 2002.
[CrossRef]

Sorin, W. V.

Sphicopoulos, T.

D. Katsianis, I. Welling, M. Ylonen, D. Varoutas, T. Sphicopoulos, N. Elnegaard, B. Olsen, L. Budry, “The financial perspective of the mobile networks in Europe,” IEEE Pers. Commun., vol. 8, no. 6, pp. 58–64, Dec. 2001.
[CrossRef]

Sphicopoulos, Th.

D. Varoutas, Th. Kamalakis, D. Katsianis, Th. Sphicopoulos, Th. Monath, “Techno-economic evaluation of optical access and metropolitan area networks: the influence of the status of maturity of the photonics component industry,” in Proc. Optical Fiber Communication and the Nat. Fiber Optic Engineers Conf., 2007, pp. 1–3.

Stordahl, K.

B. T. Olsen, K. Stordahl, “Models for forecasting cost evolution of components and technologies,” Telektronikk, vol. 4, pp. 138–148, Apr. 2004.

K. Stordahl, K. O. Kalhagen, B. T. Olsen, J. Lydersen, B. Olufsen, N. Elnegaard, “Traffic forecast models for the transport network,” in Proc. Networks, 2002, p. 6.

Su, Y.

Y. Su, P. Hu, W. Hu, J. Zhang, L. Leng, H. He, X. Tian, Y. Jin, “A packet-switched waveband-selective PON enabling optical Internetworking among ONUs,” in 31st European Conf. on Optical Communications, 2005, vol. 3, pp. 691–692.

Takushima, Y.

Tian, X.

Y. Su, P. Hu, W. Hu, J. Zhang, L. Leng, H. He, X. Tian, Y. Jin, “A packet-switched waveband-selective PON enabling optical Internetworking among ONUs,” in 31st European Conf. on Optical Communications, 2005, vol. 3, pp. 691–692.

Tyler, E. J.

Van Ooteghem, J.

K. Casier, B. Lannoo, J. Van Ooteghem, S. Verbrugge, D. Colle, M. Pickavet, P. Demeester, “Game-theoretic optimization of a fiber-to-the-home municipality network rollout,” J. Opt. Commun. Netw., vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 30–42, June 2009.
[CrossRef]

S. Verbrugge, R. Meersman, K. Casier, D. Colle, J. Vanhaverbeke, J. Van Ooteghem, P. Demeester, “Issues in techno-economic evaluation of VDSL/FTTH access networks roll-out (invited paper),” in Proc. NOC, 2007, pp. 208–215.

Vanhaverbeke, J.

S. Verbrugge, R. Meersman, K. Casier, D. Colle, J. Vanhaverbeke, J. Van Ooteghem, P. Demeester, “Issues in techno-economic evaluation of VDSL/FTTH access networks roll-out (invited paper),” in Proc. NOC, 2007, pp. 208–215.

Varoutas, D.

T. Rokkas, D. Katsianis, D. Varoutas, “Techno-economic evaluation of FTTC/VDSL and FTTH roll-out scenarios: discounted cash flows and real option valuation,” J. Opt. Commun. Netw., vol. 2, no. 9, pp. 760–772, Sept. 2010.
[CrossRef]

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Figures (14)

Fig. 1
Fig. 1

PON architecture: (a) TDM/PON and (b) WDM/PON.

Fig. 2
Fig. 2

Colorless ONT-based WDM/PON architectures considered in this paper: (a) reflective SOA and (b) injection-locked FPLD. EDFA, erbium-doped fiber amplifier; BLS, broadband light source.

Fig. 3
Fig. 3

The ECOSYS techno-economic methodology [16].

Fig. 4
Fig. 4

Network area model.

Fig. 5
Fig. 5

Price curves for optoelectronics components and demand forecast.

Fig. 6
Fig. 6

Sensitivity for TDM/PON.

Fig. 7
Fig. 7

Sensitivity for WDM/PON.

Fig. 8
Fig. 8

NPV of the TDM/PON and WDM/PON solution depending on duct availability in the main network.

Fig. 9
Fig. 9

NPV of the TDM/PON and WDM/PON solution depending on duct availability in the access network (80% present at main network).

Fig. 10
Fig. 10

Distribution of investments for the WDM/PON solution.

Fig. 11
Fig. 11

Distribution of investments for the TDM/PON solution.

Fig. 12
Fig. 12

Sensitivity analysis of the NPV of the TDM/PON with respect to the initial price of the optoelectronic components.

Fig. 13
Fig. 13

Sensitivity analysis of the NPV of the WDM/PON with respect to the initial price of the optoelectronic components.

Fig. 14
Fig. 14

Sensitivity analysis of the NPV of the WDM/PON RSOA with respect to the initial price of the optoelectronic components.

Tables (3)

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Table 1 Optoelectronic Component Cost

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Table 2 Service Classes and Traffic Assumptions

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Table 3 Greenfield Operator Results

Equations (4)

Equations on this page are rendered with MathJax. Learn more.

P ( t ) = P ( 0 ) [ n r ( 0 ) 1 { 1 + e ln [ n r ( 0 ) 1 1 ] 2 ln 9 Δ T t } 1 ] log 2 K .
Y ( t ) = S ( 1 + e a + b t ) c ,
C i = ( V i 1 + V i ) ( P i R class + C b ) 2 ,
C b = P labour MTTR MTBR .